SpaceX Lands on Nasdaq-100 With Bitcoin in the Cargo Hold 🚀

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) will join the Nasdaq-100 before U.S. markets open on Tuesday, confirmed by Nasdaq on June 26, less than a month after the company's June 12 direct listing at a $135 IPO price. SPCX closed Monday at $160.42, down 0.98% on the day and roughly 29% below its post-listing high of $225.64. The company held 18,712 BTC as of March 31, worth about $63,029.61 per coin at the time, according to disclosures. Index-tracking funds managing a combined $800 billion in assets will purchase SPCX at today's closing price to match the benchmark, with JPMorgan estimating a roughly 1.3% weight that would rank SpaceX near 21st in the index behind names including Nvidia, Walmart, Intel and Tesla.

Wall Street coverage launched in earnest on Tuesday after the expiration of the 25-day post-IPO quiet period, with nearly every major brokerage initiating coverage at buy or equivalent ratings. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a $205 price target, while Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas assigned $300. Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Macquarie, RBC Capital Markets, UBS and Wells Fargo also opened at buy or equivalent, with targets ranging from $205 to $800. The high mark came from Raymond James, where analyst Brian Gesuale rated the stock Strong Buy with an $800 target, writing, "We see the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century." Shares were recently trading at $150.93, down more than 6% from post-listing highs but still above the $135 offering price.

Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino flagged near-term supply risk as insider lockups expire in tranches between 70 and 135 days after the June 12 listing. Shares held by Elon Musk and other large backers remain locked for 366 days, but earlier tranches could release supply just as index demand builds. Susquehanna described the schedule as a near-term overhang for the stock.

Volatility remains elevated. JJ Kinahan, senior vice president at Cboe, pointed to the options market, asking, "Are you comfortable with a $20 expected move over the next 11 days?" Mike Khouw, chief strategist at OpenInterest.PRO, told CNBC, "But the smaller the percentage weighting within the index that any given constituent holds, the less stock anybody trying to track that index is going to have. Make no mistake, this is still very high volatility." The next sessions will test whether index-buying flows can absorb the unlocked supply without further pressure on the share price.