JPMorgan Trims Gold's 2026 Q4 Target by 25% — Bank Still Long, Just Not That Long

JPMorgan has cut its gold price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $4,500 per ounce, a roughly 25% reduction from its prior projection of about $6,000, citing softer demand from key buying sectors and increased sensitivity to real interest rates. The bank said it now expects an average price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter before a rebound to $4,500 in Q4, characterizing the near-term outlook as "range-bound." Spot gold was last seen around $4,175, up 1.26% over 24 hours, leaving the metal down about 26% from its all-time high of roughly $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data.

The revision comes as gold pulled back from a two-week high on July 7, with spot prices falling 0.58% to $4,141.26 an ounce as the US dollar index gained 0.3%. Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange, told CNBC that "The US dollar index is a little higher today and that is a daily bearish element (for gold)." Weaker-than-expected US June payrolls, including downward revisions to prior figures, capped losses. The CME FedWatch Tool is now pricing a roughly 56% chance of a September rate hike, with traders awaiting Wednesday's Fed minutes for further direction.

Despite the cut, JPMorgan reaffirmed a bullish medium- to long-term thesis, pointing to continued central bank accumulation and rising institutional allocation to gold as hedging demand as structural supports. The bank also projected silver averaging $60 to $65 an ounce, steady gains for platinum, and softer palladium prices through 2027.

Other major banks remain more optimistic on the near term. Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing sovereign and emerging-market central bank demand, while UBS and Morgan Stanley each project $5,200 over a roughly 12-month horizon, with Morgan Stanley cautioning that stronger ETF inflows are a precondition. JPMorgan's own June 9 note had previously envisioned $6,000 by year-end, and the bank has warned that risks skew to the downside if inflation data prints hot this summer.