Coldsway's $11.6M World Cup Parlay Goes Full Group-Stage Exit ⚽📉

A Polymarket account operating under the handle "coldsway" has lost $11.6 million wagering on 2026 FIFA World Cup matches over a 10-day stretch, finishing in the black on just four of 15 positions. Polymarket data shows a 26.7% win rate, with $4.23 million earned across winning trades offset by $15.86 million in losses on the remaining 11. The downturn has continued into the knockout rounds, where several live positions remain open.

The largest single hit came on July 4, when a $4.9 million bet that Morocco would not win its match resolved against the trader for a full loss. Additional setbacks followed, including a $3.1 million position against Canada and further losses tied to Portugal, Belgium, and Spain as favorites were held to draws or suffered upsets. The four winning trades were smaller, contrarian wagers, including a draw on Australia versus Egypt that returned more than $1.1 million and a Ghana spread against Colombia worth a similar sum.

Coldsway's run mirrors losses seen elsewhere in Polymarket's World Cup markets, which have processed billions of dollars in volume since the group stage began. A pseudonymous trader identified as FlickRaw lost roughly $4.2 million in under a day in mid-June, first putting $2.7 million on the Netherlands to defeat Japan before a late Japanese equalizer sealed a 2-2 draw. A day later, FlickRaw risked $1.5 million on Belgium against Egypt, a match that also ended level, with both positions having been promoted by Polymarket ahead of kickoff.

A separate upset cost bettors on Spain roughly $1 million when Cape Verde held the European champions to a scoreless draw, a result that delivered a windfall to a trader betting against Spain. The pattern has been driven by repeated failures of heavily favored sides, with underdog results and late equalizers punishing large favorite-side wagers throughout the tournament.

Coldsway's account remains active heading into the knockout rounds, where the resolution of outstanding positions will determine whether the trader claws back any portion of the $11.6 million lost during the group stage.