Clarity Comes With a 53% Chance: Senate's Crypto Bill Teases July 4 Drop 🍾

Prediction market Polymarket put the odds of the CLARITY Act passing at 53% on Friday, up sharply as lawmakers signaled that an updated draft of the bill could be released on July 4 for public comment. The bill, which seeks to clarify how digital assets are regulated in the United States, has been a focal point of negotiations between senators, regulators and industry participants since September.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, a lead proponent of the legislation, told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo that the work has been intensive. "We've been negotiating on the CLARITY Act hardcore since last Labor Day," Lummis said, describing the process as "an arduous process." She added that lawmakers and Senate leadership had continued to discuss the bill in recent days.

The shift in market expectations comes after months of back-and-forth over how decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and other digital-asset firms would be treated under existing securities and commodities frameworks. Industry opposition to certain DeFi provisions had previously slowed momentum, but recent easing of those concerns helped push Polymarket's CLARITY Act approval probability above the 50% mark.

The July 4 release would mark the first formal text of the bill since earlier rounds of drafting, giving stakeholders a window to submit comments before the Senate proceeds. Polymarket's tracker for the bill's approval in 2026 showed the probability rising in step with the negotiating timeline.

Lummis did not name a specific vote date, but said the chamber was working toward final language that could be shared with the public over the holiday. She said the aim was to align the bill with existing commodity and securities oversight while giving digital-asset issuers a clearer path to compliance.