CoinShares Calls BTC's Bottom a Work in Progress 📉

Bitcoin is trading near $62,494.63 after a 1.3% gain over the prior 24 hours, but CoinShares is cautioning that the rebound does not yet mark a durable reversal. In a new report, the digital asset manager characterized the move as "the early stage of a bottoming process, not the start of a clean new leg higher."

The latest leg up followed a weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls release for June, which showed employers added 57,000 jobs versus the 115,000 economists had forecast. May's figure was revised to 129,000 from an initial reading of 172,000, while the unemployment rate edged down from 4.3% to 4.2%. On the data, traders pushed out expectations for near-term Fed easing, and the two-year Treasury yield dropped more than five basis points, a move that typically supports flows into risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

CoinShares stressed that investors should not read the soft payrolls print as a broader shift in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June meeting, Kevin Warsh's first as chair, and the accompanying dot plot turned more hawkish. Officials now project rates averaging 3.8% at the end of 2026, up from 3.4% in the March estimate.

The firm also pointed to lingering supply-side overhangs, including roughly $39 billion in selling from whales holding more than 100,000 BTC near the October 2025 market peak, the largest drag on Bitcoin's price during 2025. That distribution has largely halted in 2026, though net outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded products total about $2.7 billion year-to-date. CoinShares attributes the rotation primarily to AI-focused exchange-traded funds, which have absorbed approximately $5.5 billion in inflows.

Additional headwinds flagged include geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict, diminished expectations for passage of the CLARITY Act this year, and potential supply pressure from Strategy's Bitcoin holdings. Open interest has been steady and trending higher since mid-June, indicating fresh positioning on both sides of the market, and CoinShares warned that rising leverage at subdued prices could amplify the next major move through forced liquidations.