JPMorgan Trims Gold's Short-Term Halo: Q4 Target Chopped ~25% to $4,500/oz 🪙

JPMorgan has lowered its gold price target for the fourth quarter of 2026 by roughly 25%, cutting its projection to $4,500 per ounce from a prior forecast of around $6,000. The bank also projects an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. The revision reflects weaker purchasing power across gold's major demand centers and increased sensitivity to shifts in real interest rates, which JPMorgan said will keep the metal "range-bound" in the near term before a second-half recovery takes hold.

The bank described the current setup as "range-bound," signaling sideways price action before any projected rebound later in the year. Spot gold was trading at $4,175, up 1.26% over the prior 24 hours, and was down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data.

Other major institutions have maintained more aggressive forecasts. Goldman Sachs projects $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. UBS is targeting $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Federal Reserve policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Morgan Stanley also sees $5,200 in the second half of 2026, but has warned that gold needs stronger ETF inflows to get there.

Despite the near-term cut, JPMorgan's medium- to long-term outlook on gold remains firmly bullish. The bank pointed to continued central bank reserve accumulation and sustained physical demand as structural forces that could support prices through 2027. Institutional portfolio hedging into gold was also cited as a durable demand driver, with the bank arguing that both trends provide a firm floor under prices well beyond the current consolidation phase.