XRP Holders Down Bad Enough to Set Records, Still Somehow Pumping 📈

XRP rose roughly 8% over the past week to about $1.14 even as onchain data showed the token's holders sitting on their deepest unrealized losses on record, according to analytics firm Santiment. The divergence has drawn attention from traders who view the capitulation setup as evidence that selling pressure from underwater holders may be largely exhausted.

The signal comes from MVRV, or market value to realized value, which compares XRP's price against the average price at which its supply last moved. XRP's 30-day MVRV sits near minus 45% and its 365-day version near minus 47%, levels Santiment said the token has never reached before, meaning both recent buyers and longer-term holders are deep in the red.

"The best setups often appear when the crowd is feeling maximum pain," Santiment wrote in a Friday post, describing the configuration as a risk-reward point rather than a price call. The firm added that adding to positions at these levels carries less risk than usual, while noting XRP could still fall further if the broader market weakens.

The pattern mirrors a broader setup across crypto, with large bitcoin wallets accumulating through record ETF outflows in a capitulation-and-absorption configuration that analysts say tends to form near cycle lows rather than tops. XRP's 8% weekly gain places it among the stronger majors, alongside bitcoin's ongoing wallet accumulation despite sustained outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs.

None of the readings constitute a confirmed bottom. MVRV measures how washed out positioning is, not when it reverses, and stretched losses can persist while a market grinds sideways or lower. What the gauge does indicate is that selling pressure from underwater holders is largely spent, leaving traders to monitor whether new buyers continue to step in.