Hard Fork, Soft Charts: Cardano Pops 13% Into a Bearish Tape 🪓

Cardano [$ADA] climbed 13.22% over the past 24 hours, with daily trading volume rising nearly 60%, as the network activated the van Rossem upgrade on schedule. The hard fork is classified as an intra-era upgrade rather than a major protocol change, and it targets performance and governance by introducing new Plutus built-in functions. The move coincided with a broader market rebound and Bitcoin [$BTC] recapturing ground above $62,000.

Despite the rally, the longer-term setup on Cardano remained skewed lower. Buyers had defended the $0.235 support level through April and May, but ADA had been in a downtrend since September 2025, and the breakdown below $0.235 damaged the bullish case. The loss of the higher-timeframe $0.32 support in January 2026 flipped the swing structure bearish, and sellers have controlled price action since.

At press time, the 1-day chart continued to print bearish structure. A move from $0.19 down to $0.138 in June was used to anchor Fibonacci retracement levels, and the 78.6% level at $0.1789 has been broken to the upside, though the swing structure stayed bearish. A daily session close above $0.19 would be required to flip the structure bullish.

Indicators offered a mixed read. The Money Flow Index recovered above 50, signaling upward momentum and increased buying pressure, while the Chaikin Money Flow stood at just +0.03 despite the recent volume surge; the CMF has spent most of its time below zero since March, pointing to a lack of sustained demand. The MFI's reading above the 80 threshold suggested the bounce had reached overextended territory.

Technical commentary noted a swing-trade setup with invalidation on an H4 close above $0.19, with $0.138 and $0.126 identified as the next downside targets.