XRP Holds $1 by a Thread While Leverage, ETFs, and History All Tug Different Directions 🪢

XRP traded at approximately $1.07 on June 25, 2026, after sliding 2.8% during a 24-hour session that took it from $1.1020 to $1.0708 and broke support at $1.0850 on volume of 117.26 million XRP at 13:00 UTC. Selling later drove the token to an intraday low near $1.0446 before a modest rebound carried price back toward $1.07, leaving XRP near the lower end of its June trading range. On Friday, June 26, Ripple prices fell to $1.009, the closest brush of the psychological $1 level since November 2024, according to AMBCrypto's reporting.

The selloff triggered heavy derivatives activity, with nearly $9 million in long liquidations on June 25. Binance accounted for about $4.5 million of that total. Binance Open Interest dropped to nearly $205 million, its lowest level since March 22, while Bybit Open Interest fell to around $185 million. Across major exchanges, Open Interest fell below 150 million from a 1.3 billion peak, removing a large share of leveraged positioning built up during XRP's earlier rally. Funding Rates turned sharply negative, and total Open Interest dropped from approximately $1.18 billion to approximately $1.04 billion, according to one source, while another pegged recent levels near 400 million XRP with the Open Interest Turnover Ratio holding stable near 0.71. Nearly $3 million in long positions were liquidated at the peak of the decline as bullish traders were forced out of their exposure. By June 30, XRP had edged up to $1.0544, gaining 1.59% in a 24-hour session, with volume reaching 86.5 million XRP on June 29 at 17:00 UTC, about 67% above the 24-hour average, as the token continued to hold above $1.00.

XRP spot ETF demand remained positive even as price weakened. Net inflows reached 4.82 million XRP during week 26, bringing total ETF holdings to 938.73 million XRP, approximately 1% of circulating XRP. The broader picture showed eight consecutive weeks of inflows and cumulative inflows of $144.7 million. On June 26 alone, XRP ETFs added $15.6 million in net inflows, while bitcoin ETFs saw $444.5 million in outflows and ether funds lost $12.9 million. AMBCrypto reported that the share of XRP's market cap represented by those holdings declined from over $1 billion to $989 million, indicating institutional buying power has increased more than XRP's valuation. Each new ETF creation requires the purchase of additional Spot XRP, and this gradual reduction in available supply has not yet been matched by broader spot demand.

Network activity strengthened during the same period. Daily active addresses rose from 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 39,500 by June 27, a 72% increase in two weeks. By July 3, XRP had climbed to $1.0894, gaining 0.62% in the latest 24-hour session after establishing higher lows at $1.0552, $1.0589, and $1.0799. Volume rose 26.92% above the seven-day average, with the strongest push coming at 13:00 UTC when volume reached 117.5 million XRP, about 142% above the 24-hour average. Wallet creation rose to 4,941 daily addresses, the strongest single-day growth in 14 weeks, and bullish social sentiment reached a three-month high, with positive comments outnumbering bearish ones by 3.7 to 1. Ripple completed its scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow unlock without a meaningful price shock.

The technical structure leaves XRP capped by resistance near $1.10-$1.12, with larger barriers at the 50-day EMA around $1.20 and the 100-day EMA around $1.31. On the downside, the immediate support zone sits at $1.05-$1.07, with $1.00 as the psychological level if that band fails. The 4-hour RSI has recovered, but XRP remains near $1.03-$1.08, well below its 200-day Moving Average. Analyst Arab Chain noted that traders can use a spike in Open Interest and the turnover ratio as an early warning of increased volatility, and the 4-hour chart showed XRP trading within a downtrend that stretches back to July 2025, with southward extension targets at $0.975 and $0.854. The Sharpe Z-Score has dropped deeper into negative territory, mirroring the extreme reading before the November 2024 breakout and the July 2025 rally, suggesting downside momentum may be becoming exhausted rather than accelerating further.