Payrolls Miss the Memo: 57K Jobs Added, Bitcoin Reads It as a Rate-Cut Coded Message 📉➡️📈

Bitcoin climbed above $61,000 on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin lowering interest rates later this year, improving conditions for liquidity-sensitive assets. $BTC rose alongside $ETH as traders rotated into risk following the release, with Bitcoin trading around $61,500, up more than 2% from an intraday low below $60,000, according to TradingView data.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm jobs in June, well below expectations of 115,000 and down from a revised 129,000 in May. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% over the month and 3.5% from a year earlier. April and May payroll figures were revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, indicating hiring had been weaker than previously estimated. The labor force participation rate slipped to 61.5% from 61.8%, suggesting fewer Americans were working or actively seeking employment.

Employment gains were concentrated in professional and business services, health care, and social assistance, while leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 jobs, reflecting weaker-than-usual seasonal hiring. Financial markets interpreted the report as supportive of a less restrictive monetary policy path, with U.S. Treasury yields declining and the U.S. Dollar Index weakening as traders reassessed the outlook for interest rates. The policy-sensitive two-year yield fell alongside the benchmark 10-year yield.

The report reinforced expectations that the Fed could begin easing policy if upcoming inflation data continue to moderate. Lower interest rates generally reduce borrowing costs and support liquidity, conditions that have historically benefited cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. Most Fed officials, following the June FOMC meeting, have signaled they are waiting on further evidence of slowing inflation before committing to a first rate cut.

Market participants are no longer pricing in a rate hike by October and have shifted that expectation to December. While the jobs report alone is unlikely to determine the Fed's next policy decision, it adds to evidence that the labor market is gradually losing momentum rather than overheating. Upcoming inflation releases, including the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures data, remain the next major catalysts for markets assessing the timing of the central bank's first rate cut.