Uncle Sam Bets Bigger Abroad: US Wallet Whales Still Owning Polymarket's Political Pools 🐳

US-based users are the single largest national cohort of political bettors on Polymarket by both contracts traded and wallet count, according to a report published Thursday by blockchain research firm Allium, despite the platform's ongoing efforts to geoblock American IP addresses. "Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume," the report stated, adding that "the demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight." Allium's figures were drawn from the 6% of wallets it tagged with a country of origin, a methodology the firm described as directional rather than exhaustive.

Allium found that US users tilt heavily toward foreign conflict markets, with five of the cohort's top 12 markets by notional volume tied to the Iran war, while showing comparatively less interest in election-related markets that are available on Kalshi and Polymarket US, the company's separate US-regulated venue that launched in December. "US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades," Allium wrote. The findings align with a June study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that roughly 30% of Polymarket's trading volume originates from the US, amounting to between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion in transaction value between May 2025 and April 2026, based on analysis of trade timing and market participation.

Polymarket was first required to cut off US users from its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, and the company has reportedly escalated enforcement by blocking IP addresses tied to VPN services, according to a May report from The Information. The platform remains entirely blocked in more than 34 countries, with Spain most recently restricting local access to both Polymarket and Kalshi as a "precautionary measure" while authorities opened an investigation into the platforms' operations. Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment. The continued US engagement adds to a growing list of regulatory and operational pressures on the company, which separately disclosed a $2.9 million theft this week with users to be refunded, even as its prediction-market competitors face similar legal and political scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions.