Jobs Print Misses by Half, Bitcoin Doesn't Mind: 57K vs 110K Expected 🚶‍♂️

The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday, falling well short of the 110,000 economists had forecast and trailing May's revised 129,000 gain, originally reported as 172,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%, a modest improvement that came alongside a decline in the labor force participation rate to 61.5% from 61.8%. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% on the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, in line with projections.

Prior to the release, analysts were divided on the scale of the slowdown. TD Securities projected 80,000 jobs (55,000 private, 25,000 government), anticipating moderation after "strong early-2026 gains" led by trade/transport and leisure, with local governments potentially staying firm on World Cup effects. National Bank of Canada Senior Economist Jocelyn Paquet forecast a 90,000 increase, citing robust but cooling job creation based on ADP data and S&P Global's flash composite PMI, alongside a "slight" uptick in layoffs as reflected in initial jobless claims between the May and June survey periods. ADP's own private payrolls report on Wednesday had shown a 98,000 gain, below the 113,000 expected and down from May's 122,000.

Bitcoin held above $61,000 following the release, trading at $61,488.28 according to data cited, up 4% over 24 hours. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped four basis points to 4.46%, and Nasdaq 100 futures moved to a 0.7% gain from roughly flat ahead of the report.

The miss arrived against a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, in a Tuesday CNBC interview, delivered a moderately hawkish message with an FXS Speechtracker score of 6.4/10, flagging broad inflation and keeping the option of a rate hike alive. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been associated with a hawkish turn at the policy meeting two weeks ago, alongside concerns over sticky inflation partly attributed to AI-driven hardware demand affecting consumer electronics costs.

Market expectations for Fed action shifted in the minutes following the release. CME FedWatch data showed the implied probability of one or more rate hikes by September falling to 50% from roughly 65% the prior day. The June payrolls report was released Thursday at 12:30 GMT.