Oil Dumps Below $68 While Bitcoin and Gold Quietly Walk the Other Way 🪙

West Texas Intermediate crude slid below $68 per barrel on Thursday for the first time in 125 days, as Saudi Arabia resumed near-pre-war export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran truce. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed more than 5% over the same 24-hour stretch to trade near $61,649, while spot gold extended gains to about $4,119, with an intraday push toward $4,140. WTI has now retreated below its level when U.S. strikes on Iran began in late February, having previously peaked above $110 at the height of the conflict.

Four Bahri supertankers carrying roughly 8 million barrels have exited the Gulf, the largest such movement since the waterway reopened, according to shipping data cited by Walter Bloomberg. Saudi exports had slumped to about 4 million barrels per day during the fighting, down from more than 7 million in February, and are again approaching the pre-war pace of 6.3 million barrels per day recorded in Argus data. Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings at Ras Tanura, the world's largest oil terminal, after a near four-month halt, while analytics firm Kpler estimates strait traffic has recovered to about 40 vessel crossings per day, and neighboring UAE flows have already returned to pre-war levels. The strait handles roughly 20% of seaborne oil trade, according to the EIA.

The 60-day truce roadmap remains interim, and insurers continue to apply caution to Gulf shipping. During the closure Riyadh kept roughly half its exports flowing by diverting cargoes to Red Sea ports, a workaround that is no longer carrying the same volume. The decline in crude has tracked with cooling inflation expectations and a broader rotation back into risk assets, with nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks carrying record Buy ratings as geopolitical tensions ease, according to the cited research.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted the AI investment shock has people wondering if it will be inflationary, adding that "productivity gains could rise exponentially due to AI." Her remarks came in the same session in which BTC reclaimed $61,500 and gold held above the $4,000 threshold, underscoring the divergence between the energy complex and hard-asset peers.