Central Banks Keep Stacking Gold While the Metal Itself Stacks Losses 🥇📉

Central banks purchased a net 41 tonnes of gold in May, according to World Gold Council data, even as the metal headed for a fourth consecutive monthly decline driven by Federal Reserve rate expectations and Middle East tensions. Gold fell 11.7% in June after a 1.8% decline in May, with BeInCrypto reporting a print of $3,942 on June 30, the lowest since early November 2025. The roughly 16% quarterly drop marked the worst quarter for gold since Q2 2013.

Major banks have recalibrated targets in response to shifting rate odds. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end call to $4,900 per ounce. Deutsche Bank trimmed its third-quarter forecast to $4,300 and warned prices could reach $3,800 if the Fed delivers three to four hikes.

The National Bank of Poland led May's official-sector buying with 18 tonnes, its fourth straight month of double-digit accumulation, lifting its 2026 total to 64 tonnes and reserves to 614 tonnes. The People's Bank of China added 10 tonnes, its 20th consecutive monthly purchase and the largest since December 2024, bringing China's holdings to roughly 2,331 tonnes. The Monetary Authority of Singapore purchased 4 tonnes, its first buy since September 2025, and separately announced plans to launch central bank gold vaulting services in October 2026. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan added 9 tonnes and 7 tonnes respectively, while Turkey and Russia remained net sellers.

Sentiment data points to continued demand. In the WGC's 2026 survey, 89% of respondents expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months and 45% expect their own institution's holdings to grow. The May figures, however, predate June's double-digit slide, and the next monthly report will indicate whether central bank conviction held through the selloff.