Bitcoin's 9-Month Bear Spa: Four Green Lights, Two Missing Pieces, One Uncertain Exit 🧭

The cryptocurrency market has been in a bear phase for approximately nine months, and on-chain analytics firm The DeFi Report is weighing whether the cycle bottom is already in view or still ahead. In its latest video report, analyst Mike pointed to Bitcoin trading under its 200-week moving average, roughly $62,400, with the price fluctuating between $59,000 and $60,000 — a range where $BTC has historically spent little time, a pattern the firm associates with significant cycle bottoms.

Four of the six key on-chain indicators tracked by The DeFi Report are currently flashing bullish signals. The Loss-Making Supply metric shows more than 48% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is at a loss, and readings on long-term holders suggest the market is close to the lows of past bear markets. Analysts at the firm, however, noted that two indicators — Realized Market Value (RMV) and MVRV ratios — have not yet confirmed a final bottom, citing insufficient "capital destruction" and a lack of change of hands comparable to past cycles.

Macro risks could yet trigger another wave of capitulation. Markets are pricing in a 70% probability of an interest rate hike in September, and the Federal Reserve's commitment to bringing inflation down to 2% could revive selling pressure across equities and crypto. A 20–25% pullback in the NASDAQ or AI-focused technology stocks could weigh on the crypto market, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike to 1% — its highest level in 30 years — combined with continued yen depreciation could force global investors to unwind cheap carry trades and tighten liquidity. Increased political polarization ahead of the U.S. elections and a consumer confidence index near historic lows are adding indirect pressure to risk assets.

The DeFi Report also flagged that today's deadline for crypto exchanges in Europe to obtain MiCA licenses has reshaped the regulatory landscape across the continent. The firm stopped short of declaring a bottom, reiterating that the combination of improving on-chain signals and unresolved macro headwinds leaves the cycle's lowest point uncertain.