Galaxy Coin-Flips the CLARITY Act: Senate Calendar Stalls 50/50 🎲

Galaxy Digital has cut its 2026 odds for the CLARITY Act to 50%, citing a tightening U.S. Senate calendar and intensifying competition for floor time before the chamber's August recess. "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago," wrote Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, on June 26. Thorn added that "the absence of news is itself the news." The downgrade follows prior cuts to 60% on June 9 and 75% in May, when the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill.

Galaxy's note stressed the issue is timing rather than substance. The Senate Banking Committee approved the measure 15-9 in May, with all Republicans and two Democrats voting in favor, but the Banking and Agriculture committees have yet to publish a merged text or set a floor vote date. "Constructive staff-level work toward a combined text is what we would want to see at this stage," Thorn wrote, cautioning that "private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote." Unresolved issues include ethics provisions, stablecoin yield treatment, and Section 604 developer protections.

Competition for floor time has escalated since President Donald Trump said Wednesday he will not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act proof-of-citizenship measure. The FISA Section 702 reauthorization and the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2027 are also competing for Senate attention. The chamber entered a state work period on June 29 and is scheduled to return July 13, with the August recess set to begin the week of August 10 and run roughly five weeks before lawmakers return on September 14.

Prediction markets price 2026 passage lower still. Polymarket put the odds near 48%, down from about 74% in mid-May, while Galaxy's 50% figure leaves the bill at a coin flip. Jefferies analyst Andrew Moss warned on June 30 that failure to pass CLARITY before the August recess "could push the bill out to next year, or even later, if Democrats flip the Senate in November," and flagged Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), and Bullish (BLSH) as equities most exposed to legislative swings.

The House passed H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act, 294-134 in July 2025, with 78 Democrats crossing the aisle, but a final Senate floor vote requires 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democrats must back the reconciled text. More than 200 crypto firms urged Senate leaders in June to schedule a vote, and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has backed a "thoughtful, nuanced" approach to Section 604 that does not push the market overseas. Stand With Crypto, a Coinbase-affiliated lobby group, has echoed Thorn's warnings, while Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, told Decrypt that the bill "remains one of the few domestic U.S. policy catalysts that could potentially improve market sentiment." Bitcoin ($BTC) traded at $64,231.88, down 0.48% over 24 hours at the time of publication.