140 Firms, One Coin, Zero Chill: Circle Stock Takes a 17% Plunge 💸

Shares of USDC issuer Circle (CRCL) fell roughly 17% on June 30 to a recent $63.99, according to Yahoo Finance, extending the stock's decline to 39% over the past month. The selloff followed the unveiling of Open USD (OUSD), a new stablecoin consortium backed by more than 140 companies including Coinbase, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, Google, Shopify, American Express, BNY, Standard Chartered and Ripple. The coin is operated by a new independent entity called Open Standard, led by founding CEO Zach Abrams, who previously founded Bridge, a stablecoin company acquired by Stripe. Open Standard said businesses will be able to mint and redeem Open USD for free with no volume caps, with reserve earnings shared among partners net of a management fee. The consortium is targeting enterprise treasury management and merchant payments. OUSD is expected to go live later this year.

Open Standard framed the effort as neutral, shared infrastructure modeled on the early internet. "Existing stablecoins have great strengths, but to use them at scale, businesses need something that's open, low-cost, high-throughput, broadly accessible, and aligned to their interests," Abrams said in a statement. BlackRock's Samara Cohen called it "a constructive step toward giving businesses more choice," while BNY projected the broader stablecoin market could swell to $1.5 trillion by 2030. Governance will sit with a board drawn from OUSD partner companies rather than a single corporate parent.

Circle shares were higher on July 1, bouncing about 5% after the plunge, though Jefferies warned clients against buying the dip. "Buy the dip? We wouldn't," the firm's analyst team wrote, adding that "CRCL headwinds are unlikely to ease." The note flagged Coinbase's participation in Open USD as a new risk, noting that Circle derives roughly 95% of its revenue from interest earned on USDC reserves and that its commercial agreement with Coinbase, its largest distribution partner, is reportedly up for renewal in August. Circle holds about 25% of the $300 billion stablecoin market. Jefferies argued new entrants now have built-in distribution networks that Circle lacked when USDC launched in 2018.

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire and ARK Invest's Lorenzo Valente questioned whether a 140-firm consortium can coordinate effectively and withstand regulatory pressure, pointing to USDC's existing network effects and regulatory footprint. Outside analysts echoed that view. Matthew Sigel, head of digital research at VanEck, said the OUSD launch could pressure USDC adoption and Circle's revenue outlook. Sam Ruskin, an investment associate at Reciprocal Ventures, added, "This will either force Circle to continue their revenue share agreements, find new distributors for USDC (although nearly everyone interested in stablecoins today is backing OUSD). Whatever way you cut it, this seems bearish for Circle."

The competitive landscape has shifted since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025. Tether's USDT still leads the market, though its share has slipped from 62% to 59%, while Circle's share rose from 19% to 25% before easing to 24% in 2026. Despite Tuesday's drop, analysts' consensus price target on CRCL stands at roughly $120, implying about 91% upside from current levels.