Citi's Crystal Ball Goes Dark: Bank Zeros Out Bitcoin ETF Inflows, Trims Targets 📉

Citigroup cut its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether on Tuesday, scrapping its earlier forecast for fresh U.S. spot ETF inflows after demand for the funds collapsed and digital asset legislation stalled in Washington. The Wall Street bank lowered its base-case bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and trimmed its ether target to $2,240 from $3,175, according to a Tuesday report by analyst Alex Saunders.

The bank now projects zero net ETF inflows over the next 12 months, walking back an earlier view that regulatory progress and a market structure bill would draw institutional capital back into crypto. At publication time, bitcoin was trading around $58,400 and ether at $1,570, with bitcoin down 0.6% and ether down 1.1% over 24 hours. Bitcoin's ticker is $BTC and it traded near $59,282.33 in the report's reference data, while ether trades as $ETH.

"The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12m," Saunders wrote. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $4 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, after a 13-day redemption streak pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory for the first time since the products launched in 2024.

The downgrade reverses Citi's prior stance, which had assumed passage of U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would unlock allocations from financial advisors and other traditional investors. The bank now views that timeline as delayed, leaving the market without a meaningful near-term catalyst.

Saunders added that ETF flows remain the dominant driver of crypto prices, with recent demand turning negative as investors pulled back from risk assets. Sentiment has also been weighed down by concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) companies could shift into net selling of bitcoin, a fear amplified by recent corporate actions at Strategy even though the $BTC sales involved were relatively modest.

The report noted that both bitcoin and ether remain below key technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative capital has rotated toward AI-related investments. Citi's revised forecasts assume flat-to-downward momentum for the two largest cryptocurrencies through the remainder of the year.