Clarity Act Odds Crater to 39% While Trump Cashes In $1.4B Crypto Check 📉

Prediction market traders have pushed the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law this year down to 39% on Polymarket as of July 1, a new low for the crypto market structure bill. The drop coincides with President Donald Trump's disclosure of $1.4 billion in crypto income, which Senator Elizabeth Warren has cited in raising conflicts of interest concerns. On Kalshi, the implied odds of passage before year's end range between roughly 36% and 44%, mirroring the downgraded outlook.

The bill, which the U.S. House of Representatives approved in July 2025, faces mounting delays in the Senate. Galaxy Research has cut its own passage estimate from 60% to 50%, citing calendar pressure before the August recess. Polymarket said on June 30 that the "Clarity Act" is no longer projected to be signed into law this year.

According to a separate report, President Trump called off the signing ceremony for the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a bill that included a ban on a central bank digital currency and had bipartisan support in both chambers. In March, Trump said he would "not sign other bills" until Republicans in Congress passed the SAVE America Act, a stance that has tightened the Senate schedule and squeezed the Clarity Act's window for passage before the August recess. Senator Tim Scott has stated his support for advancing the bill as soon as possible, and Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee have already put forward a bipartisan proposal.

The legislative calendar could grow tighter still. Lawmakers face the prospect of refocusing on reelection campaigns, which would push any consideration of the Clarity Act into the next session of Congress in 2027. The bill would need sixty votes to clear the Senate, and the stablecoin industry's objections to certain reward provisions, along with ethics questions from lawmakers, have added to the friction.

Analysts at Galaxy have warned that prolonged regulatory ambiguity in the United States could push crypto activity to jurisdictions with clearer legal frameworks. For now, with Polymarket traders pricing the bill at 39% and Galaxy at 50%, the Clarity Act's path through the Senate before the August recess remains unresolved.