Odds? 50-50. Senate Calendar? Tightening. CLARITY Act? Sweating 🪙

Galaxy Digital has cut its 2026 odds for the CLARITY Act to 50%, blaming a tightening U.S. Senate calendar rather than any shift in the bill's substance, according to a research note published Friday by Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn. Galaxy had previously set the odds at 75% after the May markup, then trimmed them to 60% on June 9 before Friday's downgrade.

Thorn said the problem is scheduling, not policy. "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago," he wrote, adding that "the absence of news is itself the news." Thorn said Galaxy still expects a possible July vote, but flagged that "private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote."

The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by a 15-9 vote, with only two Democrats in support. The Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees have not yet released a merged text, and no floor date has been set. Unresolved issues include ethics provisions, stablecoin yield treatment, and Section 604 developer protections; ethics language talks collapsed on June 9.

The Senate adjourned until July 13 and begins its roughly five-week August recess on Aug. 10, returning Sept. 14 — leaving about four working weeks for floor action. Competition for that time has intensified after President Donald Trump said he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, and with surveillance reauthorization under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and the National Defense Authorization Act also pending.

Prediction markets are pricing 2026 passage lower than Galaxy. Polymarket put the odds near 44–49% this week, down from about 74% a month ago, according to the sources. The CLARITY Act passed the House 294-134 in July 2025, with 78 Democrats voting yes; the bill needs 60 votes in the Senate, meaning at least seven Democrats must cross over.

Industry voices remain split on the implications. More than 200 crypto firms urged Senate leaders in June to schedule a vote, while a coalition of law enforcement and Catholic organizations warned the White House the bill could create oversight gaps on illicit activity. Ark Invest's Cathie Wood has backed a "thoughtful, nuanced" approach to Section 604 that does not push the market overseas. HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun told Decrypt the slip reflects "merely a matter of time delay rather than the rejection of the proposal's actual content," though he warned that a delay could push the legislation into "a more complex mid-term election environment."

The CLARITY Act would establish the first federal framework for digital assets, splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Without a unified Senate text and floor schedule in early July, Thorn wrote, the bill is at risk of sliding past the summer window.