Galaxy Says CLARITY Act Odds Now a Coin Flip as Senate Calendar Runs Out of Spoons 🪙

Galaxy Digital has cut its estimated probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month and from 75% after the bill's May committee markup. Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn attributed the downgrade to a narrowing Senate calendar and growing competition for floor time, rather than to any change in the bill's substance. "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago," Thorn wrote, adding that "the absence of news is itself the news."

The Senate adjourned on June 29 for a state work period and is scheduled to return July 13, leaving roughly four working weeks before the chamber's longer recess begins August 10, with a return set for September 14. Thorn noted "constructive staff-level work toward a combined text is what we would want to see at this stage," but stressed that "private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote." The Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee have not published a merged bill text, and no floor vote date has been set.

Several must-pass items are competing for the same limited floor time, including FISA Section 702 reauthorization, the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2027, and the housing bill standoff triggered when President Donald Trump said he would not sign the housing legislation unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act. Thorn said the SAVE Act dispute "injects another contentious, leadership-consuming fight into an already crowded queue."

The CLARITY Act, which would split digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC, passed the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025, with 78 Democrats in support. In the Senate, it cleared the Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14, and the panel referred the bill to the full chamber, where 60 votes are required, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to cross over. Unresolved issues include stablecoin yield treatment, ethics provisions following the collapse of ethics language talks on June 9, and Section 604 developer protections, with law enforcement groups pressing for changes to those safeguards.

More than 200 crypto companies and organizations urged Senate leaders in a June letter organized by the lobby group Stand With Crypto to schedule a vote on the bill, while a group of law enforcement organizations and a coalition of Catholic organizations separately raised oversight concerns with White House officials. Prediction market traders on Polymarket put 2026 passage at roughly 44% this week, down from about 74% in May. Bitcoin ($BTC) traded at $64,231.88, down 0.48% over 24 hours at the time of the report.