Galaxy Slashes CLARITY Act Odds to 50/50 as Senate Clock Ticks ⏳

Galaxy Digital has cut its estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% several weeks ago, citing a tightening US Senate calendar and intensifying competition for floor time. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's Head of Firmwide Research, framed the downgrade as a timing issue rather than a substantive one, writing, "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago." Thorn added that "the absence of news is itself the news" and that "private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote."

The pressure on floor time escalated after US President Donald Trump said he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections measure, injecting another contentious fight into an already crowded legislative queue. The Senate is currently in a state work period until July 10 and is scheduled to begin its traditional August recess on Aug. 8 for five weeks before returning on Sept. 14, compressing meaningful floor time to roughly two to three weeks. The chamber is also working on must-pass items including Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2027.

The CLARITY Act, which aims to establish the first comprehensive US regulatory framework for digital assets, cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 22 with a 15-9 vote but has been pending in committee since. Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee staff are conducting reconciliation work on a combined text, but no unified legislative language has been released and no floor vote date has been set. A House hearing on the bill is scheduled for July 17, and Thorn noted that "constructive staff-level work toward a combined text is what we would want to see at this stage."

Unresolved policy issues include stablecoin yield provisions, ethics and conflict-of-interest amendments, and Section 604, which covers developer protections and has drawn criticism from law enforcement groups as well as support from Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, who backed a "thoughtful, nuanced" approach that does not push the market overseas. At the beginning of June, over 200 crypto companies and organizations urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in a letter shared by lobby group Stand With Crypto, which separately echoed concerns that "the window continues to narrow each day." Bitcoin ($BTC) traded at $64,231.88, down 0.48% over 24 hours at the time of reporting.