Galaxy Slashes CLARITY Act Odds to 50/50: Senate Calendar Says "Maybe Later" 🗓️

Galaxy Digital has cut its 2026 passage odds for the CLARITY Act to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month and 75% in late May, citing a tightening Senate calendar and the absence of public progress on the crypto market structure bill. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, wrote that the firm is "reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago," and added that "the absence of news is itself the news." Thorn said the downgrade was about timing rather than substance.

The pressure on floor time intensified after President Donald Trump said Wednesday he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections measure, injecting what Thorn described as "another contentious, leadership-consuming fight into an already crowded queue." The Senate is also working through must-pass items including reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027. The Senate entered a state work period running through July 10 and is scheduled to begin its August recess on Aug. 8 for five weeks before returning on Sept. 14, leaving roughly four weeks of active sessions before the break.

The CLARITY Act, which aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May on a 15-9 vote and has been pending in committee since. Staff-level reconciliation of the Senate Banking and Agriculture committee texts is ongoing, but no unified legislative text has been released and no floor vote date has been set. A House hearing on the bill is scheduled for July 17. Thorn said "constructive staff-level work toward a combined text is what we would want to see at this stage" but stressed that "private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote."

Unresolved policy sticking points include stablecoin yield provisions, ethics and conflict-of-interest rules, and Section 604, which covers developer protections. A conflict-of-interest amendment fell out of committee, though ethics issues remain split among lawmakers, and law enforcement groups have continued to press for changes to the developer-liability language. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has backed "a thoughtful, nuanced" approach to Section 604 that does not push the market overseas. Earlier this month, more than 200 crypto companies and organizations urged the Senate to pass the bill in a letter shared by lobby group Stand With Crypto, while a coalition of law enforcement and Catholic organizations raised oversight concerns with White House officials.