Samson Mow calls the bitcoin bottom, analysts call it a leap of faith ⏳

Samson Mow declared on X on Sunday that bitcoin’s price bottom has already been set, arguing that the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated after the asset reached a then-all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving. “I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of ‘cycles,’” Mow wrote. “But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles, you should reason out that the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in,” said Mow, the former chief strategy officer at Blockstream and a prominent advocate for nation-state bitcoin adoption, including El Salvador’s bitcoin initiatives. Mow is known for his long-standing $1 million bitcoin price prediction.

Other market participants are not convinced. Several analysts have recently argued that $BTC may not have bottomed yet, pointing to technical signals such as bear crosses in long-term moving averages and price action around the 200-week moving average. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole wrote that a historically accurate contrarian indicator suggests bitcoin may not have much further to fall, while other analysts see meaningful downside risk later in the year.

Forecasts for a potential low remain divided. Some analysts expect limited downside, while others have projected $BTC could decline into the $40,000 to $55,000 range before establishing a durable bottom. Mow’s view, shared publicly on X, adds to a growing debate over whether structural changes such as the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and rising institutional demand have permanently altered the four-year cycle that has historically followed each halving event, which took place in April 2024.