Grayscale analyst's $3B Bitcoin wish list for Strategy: "Please, take my breath away from the balance sheet" 📉

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said he hopes Strategy will sell at least $3 billion in Bitcoin to cover most of the company's cash obligations for the next two years. In a Saturday X post, Pandl argued that the move may restore market confidence in Strategy's capital structure. Pandl added that, contrary to his hopes, he expects a 50-basis-point increase to the dividend rate on Strategy's preferred stock, STRC, adding roughly $100 million in annual obligations over two years. Pandl said this scenario "probably does not help market confidence."

Strategy faces an annual preferred dividend obligation of approximately $1.2 billion, driven primarily by STRC. STRC is Strategy's flagship "digital credit" preferred stock designed to trade near its $100 par value, but has been sliding for weeks. On Friday, it fell to as low as $71.25, a 28.75% discount to par. Strategy's common stock MSTR fared little better and closed Friday at $82.31, down 26.86% throughout the trading week. Pandl said he expects Strategy to raise STRC's dividend rate but hopes the company sells Bitcoin instead.

Strategy is the world's largest publicly-listed corporate Bitcoin holder, placing its 847,363 BTC stash and financing decisions under the industry's microscope. According to Strategy's latest 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company acquired 520 Bitcoin for $34.9 million between June 15 and June 21. Blockchain analytics company CryptoQuant argued in a Tuesday report that Strategy should pause Bitcoin purchases and focus on replenishing its cash reserve, which is down 38% in 2026. The 8-K filing also revealed that Strategy increased its US dollar reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion, leaving roughly 14 months of dividend coverage, down sharply from what was once a seven-year cushion. Strategy said on Monday that it plans to continue replenishing its cash reserves to support the credit quality of its "digital credit" securities.

CryptoQuant added that the company has no obligation to sell Bitcoin to support STRC's price, because it can deploy other methods to defend its stock, such as raising the current 11.5% dividend yield. Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow argued in a Monday X post that STRC has a built-in "self-repairing mechanism." Once the stock falls below its $100 reference price, Strategy halts new ATM issuance, cutting off the supply of fresh shares. At the same time, a lower price mechanically boosts the yield for new buyers relative to what they paid, which Mow said should draw in fresh demand and pull the price back toward par over time.