Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act odds to 50/50, basically says "Schrödinger's bill" 📉

Galaxy Digital has cut its 2026 passage odds for the CLARITY Act to 50%, down from 60% several weeks ago, citing a tightening Senate calendar and a lack of public progress before Congress' August recess. Head of Research Alex Thorn wrote in the firm's latest note, "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago," and added that "the absence of news is itself the news."

The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 15-9 vote in May and has since been pending in committee, with staff-level work underway to merge text from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees. Thorn said "constructive staff-level work toward a combined text is what we would want to see at this stage," while stressing that "private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote." No merged text has been released and no floor debate date has been set.

Galaxy also pointed to competition for floor time after President Donald Trump said Wednesday he would not sign a housing bill unless Congress passes the SAVE Act, narrowing the legislative window. The Senate is scheduled to take a two-week break after July 4 and resume July 13, with the August recess set to begin in the second week of August, leaving roughly four weeks of active session. Open policy issues include stablecoin yield, ethics provisions, and Section 604 developer protections, which law enforcement groups have pressed to change and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has urged be handled in a "thoughtful, nuanced" approach that does not push the market overseas. Stand With Crypto, a Coinbase-affiliated lobby group, has separately echoed the urgency, warning that "the window for Clarity continues to narrow each day."