Kashkari Crashes the Cut Party: One Hike Pencilled In, $BTC Hears the Footsteps 🦅

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said Friday that he now expects one interest rate increase in 2026 and does not foresee cuts coming soon, a notable shift from a policymaker long viewed as one of the Fed's more dovish voices. Kashkari told reporters, "I'm concerned about inflation, and it's not only tied to what's happening in the Middle East, it's just the impression of broader inflationary pressures in the economy."

The comments land just days after the Fed's June policy meeting, where officials voted 12-0 to hold interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%. The sharper signal came from the central bank's own projections: nine of the 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike in 2026, and the median forecast for the federal funds rate moved to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also stepped back from forward guidance, giving markets fewer signals in advance of each inflation and jobs report.

Traders are repricing the path. CME FedWatch data shows futures pricing roughly a 30% chance of a July hike and about a 76% probability of at least one increase by December. Kashkari separately confirmed his own view in a post on X by Wall St Engine (@wallstengine): "I have one rate hike pencilled in for 2026; I see rates on hold in 2027."

Higher-for-longer borrowing costs weigh on rate-sensitive assets, and Bitcoin recently traded near $60,000, up about 1.3% over 24 hours, with $BTC still well below the roughly $69,000 peak reached before the 2022 hiking cycle that took it to near $15,500. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has separately pointed to a $40,000 Bitcoin floor within six months on a hawkish Fed backdrop, a window that runs into late 2026, the same stretch Kashkari flagged for a possible move.