Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 50/50, Citing Senate Silence as Its Own Sound Bite 📉

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate for 2026 passage of the CLARITY Act to 50%, down from 60% set several weeks earlier, citing a tightening Senate calendar and the absence of public movement on the crypto market structure bill ahead of Congress' August recess. Head of Research Alex Thorn stated in a note, "We are reducing our odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 to 50-50 as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago," and added that "the absence of news is itself the news."

The CLARITY Act has been pending in the Senate Banking Committee since May, when the committee approved the bill in a 15-9 vote. The Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees have begun merging the bill's text but have not released a combined version or scheduled a floor debate. Thorn wrote that "constructive staff-level work toward a combined text is what we would want to see at this stage," while cautioning that "private meetings are not the same thing as a scheduled vote."

Unresolved policy questions continue to weigh on the process. Ethics provisions remain divided among lawmakers even after a conflict-of-interest amendment failed to advance out of committee, and law enforcement groups are still pursuing changes to developer protections contained in the bill's blockchain provisions. The bill's sponsor in the House passed it earlier in the year, and its crypto market structure framework is the central element under negotiation.

Thorn's revised 50% probability compares with the 60% figure Galaxy Digital had previously assigned to enactment this year, reflecting what the firm described as a more compressed timeline for floor action. Galaxy Digital's research note did not assign a specific timing for any future re-evaluation.