Strategy's STRC sheds a quarter of its value as Bitcoin's shadow grows longer 📉

Strategy's perpetual preferred stock STRC, marketed as a low-volatility income product designed to trade near its $100 par value, has shed roughly a quarter of its value in recent weeks, falling to around $73 in pre-market trading on Friday — approximately 27% below par, according to CoinDesk reporting. The slide has drawn comparisons on social media to Terra's failed UST stablecoin, whose 2022 collapse erased about $40 billion, but analysts say the parallel misreads what STRC actually is. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer wrote in a Monday note that "STRC is not a stablecoin," and added: "Strategy's objective has been to support STRC's trading at a level near $100, not to guarantee it. In our view, what has happened with STRC is best described not as a depeg — something that was never pegged cannot be depegged — but as a market-driven reset of required yield." Two Prime CEO Alexander Blume argued that the damage is to investor confidence rather than solvency, telling CoinDesk that Michael Saylor's "repeated pivots and deviations from his stated plans have shattered investor trust, leading to a dramatic collapse in Strategy's ecosystem."

The pressure on STRC is mirrored in Bitcoin's own decline. After falling to a 21-month low on Wednesday, $BTC extended losses on Thursday, dropping to $58,188 before ticking back up to $59,273, a 3.3% decrease over the past day, according to CoinGecko. The slide pulled Strategy common shares MSTR down 7% to $87.50 before firming to $87.89 on Thursday, and the stock fell another 8% to $86 the same day, its lowest level since February 2024. CoinGlass data showed more than $1.44 billion in crypto positions liquidated over 24 hours, dominated by $1.2 billion in longs, with $BTC accounting for $658 million of the total. The 90-day correlation between STRC and $BTC has climbed to nearly 0.70, the highest since the instrument debuted in July 2025, according to TradingView. STRC has dropped 23% this month to $76 while $BTC has slipped nearly 20% to under $60,000, hitting levels last seen in October 2024.

Strategy's underlying Bitcoin holdings stood at 847,363 coins worth about $54.5 billion as of Monday, though BitcoinTreasuries.net later valued the stash at $50.4 billion. The company retains roughly 10 months of U.S. dollar reserves to cover STRC's dividend obligations at current prices, so payments are not at risk, but the discount to par limits Strategy's ability to issue additional shares and channel proceeds into further Bitcoin purchases. Strategy has made small BTC sales recently, reportedly to cover dividend obligations, marking a shift from its long-standing accumulation stance. The mNAV multiple has compressed to 1.05, down from the high-flying premium that underpinned the company's bull thesis, and MSTR shares are now more than 84% below their November 2024 all-time high.

Attention is now turning to June 30, which brings both STRC's ex-dividend date and its monthly dividend rate reset. Eligible holders will receive a first semi-monthly dividend of $0.48 per share on July 15, a payment representing less than 0.7% of the current stock price. The more consequential event is the dividend rate reset: with a one-month volume-weighted average price of $91.46 and shares now near $73, STRC's effective yield has climbed to roughly 15%, and investors expect the board to lift the rate from 11.50% — where it has held for four consecutive months — to at least 12% or 12.50%.