Jiang Zhuoer Sees Bitcoin Bottoming Near $44K in Q4, Citing Strategy's mNAV Ghost of 2022

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of China's LeBit mining pool and one of the country's most prominent early bitcoin miners, predicted the current BTC bear market will bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026 at roughly $42,000 to $44,000. The forecast, posted in Chinese on X by the handle @Jiangzhuoer2, puts the projected low some 30% below bitcoin's level near $60,700 at the time of the post and rests primarily on a metric tied to Strategy, the largest corporate holder of the token.

Jiang's framework centers on Strategy's market net asset value, or mNAV, the ratio of the company's share price to the per-share value of the bitcoin on its balance sheet. He said the figure has fallen to 0.72, meaning the market is pricing Strategy at roughly 28% below the value of the BTC it owns. A reading above 1 indicates investors value the company at a premium to its bitcoin stack; a reading below 1 indicates a discount. Jiang noted that 0.72 sits close to the 0.7 low Strategy hit on May 11, 2022, during the previous bull-to-bear transition, and argued that mNAV historically reaches its floor about six months ahead of bitcoin's own price bottom. That 2022 mNAV low preceded bitcoin's cycle low of about $15,500 in November 2022.

Applying that roughly six-month lag to the current reading points to a bitcoin bottom around late 2026. Jiang's $42,000-$44,000 price range is derived from a separate four-year cycle model in which he believes BTC volatility compresses with each successive cycle. He framed the call in a post titled "对本轮BTC熊市 见底时间&价格 预测," or "Forecast for the bottom time and price of this BTC bear market," tagging it as an important long-term prediction.

The bearish setup aligns with other recent market signals, including bitcoin hovering near its 200-week moving average and the unwinding of the so-called debasement trade. Earlier in June, some analysts publicly called on Strategy to suspend its bitcoin purchases, arguing the firm had overextended itself. Strategy itself has not commented on Jiang's specific mNAV framing, and the forecast represents one miner's view rather than a consensus market call. Bitcoin was last cited at $58,818.00 in market data referenced by the source.