Bitcoin options traders buy umbrellas, check forecast, buy more umbrellas ☔

Bitcoin options traders are paying up for downside protection across both crypto-native and exchange-traded fund venues, according to new research from Anchorage Digital. The report, authored by Anchorage's head of research David Lawant, analyzed options activity across Deribit, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ($IBIT) and Strategy ($MSTR), arguing the three together offer a fuller view of crypto-native, institutional and retail sentiment than any single market. Both Deribit and $IBIT options markets registered elevated put skew, a pattern that signals traders are paying a premium for downside protection rather than positioning for further gains. Defensive positioning ranked in the 82nd percentile of $IBIT's history and the 84th percentile of Deribit's five-year history, according to the report.

Anchorage also found that Bitcoin ($BTC) options markets have spent nearly half of 2026 pricing higher implied volatility over the next week than over the next month, an unusual inversion the firm attributed to a succession of macroeconomic, geopolitical and crypto-specific catalysts keeping traders focused on near-term risks. Taken together, the findings indicate options traders remain focused on managing near-term risks rather than positioning for a clear directional move. Lawant said he is watching for one-month implied volatility to once again exceed one-week implied volatility, a shift he said would indicate markets are becoming more comfortable looking beyond immediate risks.

Separately, the analysis suggests investors remain cautious but are not pricing a severe downside scenario for Strategy despite recent weakness in the company's preferred and common shares. Strategy's perpetual preferred stock, $STRC, fell as low as $82.53 on June 22, about 17% below its $100 par value, before partially recovering after the company disclosed it had increased its fiat reserves to $1.3 billion. As of Thursday, it was trading around $77, roughly 23% below par. The weakness has extended beyond $STRC, with Strategy's common shares ($MSTR) down about 78% over the past year and trading around $87 on Thursday, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Despite the sell-off, Anchorage found that Strategy's options market remains well below stress levels seen during previous market corrections. While traders continue to hedge against downside risk, put skew has not reached levels typically associated with fears of forced deleveraging or a broader crisis, according to the report. Strategy, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, pioneered the corporate Bitcoin treasury model in 2020 and remains the largest corporate holder of $BTC.