Bitcoin's Onchain Bingo Card Is One Number Away From Cashing Out 🎰

Four proprietary on-chain signals tracked by digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus have aligned for the sixth time in bitcoin's 15-year history, a configuration that previously coincided with major cycle bottoms, portfolio manager Chris Sullivan said in a report and interview with CoinDesk. Bitcoin ($BTC) traded at $59,416.24, down 23% over the past month, as the asset extended a divergence from U.S. equities that had earlier climbed to record highs.

Sullivan, co-founder of Hyperion Decimus, told CoinDesk that bitcoin is now waiting on a single technical trigger before a new uptrend can be confirmed. "We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern," he said. "Either we have to break above the $82,000 pivot to confirm, or we have one final low, call it between $54,000 and $57,000. Perhaps a wick to $48,000 to capitulate. One of those two conditions we expect to happen in the next 90 days." Bitcoin has lost 23% over the past month, according to the report, and sat at $59,386 at the time of Sullivan's remarks.

The fund's framework rests on structural changes in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and improvements in on-chain fundamentals rather than prevailing narratives, Sullivan said, adding that he views the current bear-market pattern as not yet fully complete. He argued that if either scenario plays out, bitcoin could diverge further from traditional risk assets over the coming quarter.

Sullivan's outlook runs against recent commentary from other high-profile investors. Billionaire hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont said earlier this week he has become "a little bit more worried" about bitcoin's future as risk investment opportunities expand. Last month, billionaire investor Mark Cuban said he sold most of his bitcoin, citing its failure to act as a hedge during geopolitical turmoil and dollar weakness. Sullivan maintains that structural improvements in spot ETF flows and on-chain data outweigh those bearish characterizations.