Strategy's STRC Hits $74 as Myriad Traders Bet Bitcoin Wobbles to $55K 😬

Prediction market traders on Myriad, operated by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, are pricing in deeper near-term losses for the two largest cryptocurrencies, with odds of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 before climbing to $80,000 sitting at 77%, and odds of Ethereum falling to $1,500 before rising to $3,000 at 88% as markets sold off Thursday. The bearish positioning has intensified over the past month, with the odds of a Bitcoin move to $55,000 jumping 44% on Myriad in that span.

Bitcoin was trading around $59,511 at the time of writing, down roughly 1% over 24 hours and approximately 23% over the past 30 days. Earlier Thursday, BTC dipped to nearly $58,000, its lowest price since 2024. Ethereum has not been spared, falling to $1,576, a 2.6% drop in the last 24 hours and more than 25% over the past 30 days, leaving ETH just 5.2% above its $1,500 resolution point on Myriad.

The sell-off has extended into traditional markets. Shares in Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, were changing hands near $88 on Thursday, down almost 7% on the session and roughly 45% over the past month. The firm's preferred equity offering, STRC, designed to trade around a $100 par value, slid about 22% over the past month and recently traded around $77, touching an all-time low of $73.62 shortly after the opening bell. STRC, which currently offers an 11.5% annual dividend, fell 8% to $74.13 not long after U.S. markets opened, according to Yahoo Finance, marking a more than 25% drift from its $100 par value.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Decrypt that "on a short-term basis, STRC is the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog," adding that "while there are also macro factors at work—rising concerns about inflation, worries about rate hikes, etc.—the market can't keep its eyes off STRC trading in the $70s." He said traders are worried that "Strategy will enter some kind of death spiral and be forced to sell Bitcoin," and that "this pressure will likely continue until Strategy clarifies how it plans to deal with the issue." Analysts have suggested that bolstering the firm's cash position could provide additional runway to meet dividend obligations and steady shaken investors.

Hougan characterized Ethereum as "mostly caught in the crossfire" and "collateral damage" amid the STRC-related concerns. Prediction market traders on platforms beyond Myriad have echoed similar bearish positioning, with odds across venues pointing to continued downside pressure for both BTC and ETH in the near term.