Kalshi's Crystal Ball Now Costs $40B: Prediction Markets Outpace Polymarket 📈

Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh capital at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double the $22 billion figure the New York-based prediction market platform commanded in its last round, the Financial Times reported Wednesday. The company could close the new funding as soon as the third quarter of 2026, according to people familiar with the matter. Kalshi declined to comment.

The potential round would follow a $1 billion Series F closed in May and led by Coatue Management, with participation from Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, Morgan Stanley and Ark Invest. That deal valued Kalshi at $22 billion, double its $11 billion mark in December 2025 and more than four times its $5 billion valuation in October. A close at $40 billion would represent an eightfold increase in less than a year and would outstrip Polymarket's last reported valuation of $15 billion from April.

Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and launched publicly in July 2021, Kalshi has built a widening lead over Polymarket in trading volume since the two platforms flipped around September of last year, when Kalshi began letting users trade on outcomes of NFL and college football games through a partnership with Robinhood. As of May, Kalshi's monthly notional trading volume was $17.9 billion, compared with $7.1 billion for Polymarket, according to data from Token Terminal. Kalshi has also recently debuted perpetual futures tied to Near, Zcash, Shiba Inu and Dogecoin, alongside earlier launches of contracts tracking $BTC, $ETH and $XRP.

The growth has drawn outside attention, with the New York Times reporting that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has directed staff to build a prediction markets mobile app called "Arena" aimed at challenging Kalshi and Polymarket. Cboe Global Markets entered the space on Tuesday with the launch of Cboe Predicts, a platform debuting with binary contracts tied to the S&P 500.

The expansion has also brought legal friction. Kentucky last week sued five prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of "operating unlicensed and illegal sports betting and gambling platforms." The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has claimed exclusive authority over prediction markets, has countered by suing multiple state authorities, including Kentucky on Tuesday, in a bid to block state enforcement actions.