Saylor's STRC Drops to a New Low as Cash Cushion Goes From 7 Years to 14 Months 🧢

CryptoQuant is urging Strategy (MSTR) to halt its bitcoin buying, rebuild a depleted cash reserve and adopt a more disciplined framework for timing purchases, warning that the cash buffer backing the company's flagship STRC preferred stock has collapsed from more than seven years of dividend coverage to roughly 14 months. STRC, which currently yields 11.5%, fell to about $82.50 last week and slipped further to a record $79.85 on Wednesday, trading as much as 17.5% below its $100 par value as $BTC's correction and the shrinking reserve hit simultaneously.

The squeeze reflects a near fourfold rise in obligations and a sharp drawdown in reserves. Strategy's annual dividend commitments have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion since the start of 2026, while its U.S. dollar reserve has fallen 38% over the same period, partly after the company spent $1.5 billion in May to repurchase convertible notes at a discount. Reserves subsequently recovered to about $1.4 billion after Strategy sold 2.71 million MSTR shares between June 15 and June 21, raising $335.5 million in net proceeds that added roughly $300 million to its USD position and funded 520 BTC purchased for $34.9 million. Strategy said it plans to "continue replenishing" its USD reserve to "support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities."

CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, argued that "the company's strategic priority should be to pause Bitcoin purchases and rebuild its cash reserve," estimating that a balance of about $2.8 billion, equivalent to 24 months of coverage, is needed for STRC to recover. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, writing on X, similarly recommended that Strategy "pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing," and create a "disciplined selling framework" for the next bull market.

The firm's bitcoin holdings offer only a limited backstop. CryptoQuant noted that Strategy sits on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, with all bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025 and 2026 underwater, meaning any forced $BTC sale at current prices "would crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value." Strategy holds 847,363 BTC acquired at an average cost of $75,646 across 113 purchases and one sale since August 11, 2020, per BitcoinTreasuries.NET. The company is not obligated to sell bitcoin to support STRC and could instead raise its 11.5% dividend yield or issue more MSTR stock to signal its ability to continue paying dividends, according to CryptoQuant.

Not all observers agree with the call to stop buying. Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, said "$STRC has a self-repairing mechanism that most people don't really understand," arguing that Strategy avoids adding dividend obligations by halting new share issuance below par, while a higher effective yield of 12.78% at $90 and the prospect of an 11.11% capital gain at par produce a potential return near 24% that draws buyers back. "I'd be surprised if it took more than a few weeks for $STRC to get to par again," Mow added. $BTC was last trading around $59,632, down about 4% over the previous day, according to CoinGecko data.