Saylor's STRC hits 14-month runway, and CryptoQuant just handed him a "no-buy" list 🛑

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant said Wednesday that Strategy (MSTR) should halt bitcoin purchases, rebuild its cash reserve and adopt a more disciplined framework for future accumulation, warning that the company's flagship STRC preferred stock is straining under bitcoin's correction and a shrinking dollar buffer. STRC fell to about $82.50 last week, a record 17.5% below its $100 par level, and currently yields 11.5%. "They should pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing," CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju wrote in a Wednesday X post, also recommending that the largest public bitcoin treasury holder create a "disciplined selling framework" for the next bull market.

Strategy's U.S. dollar reserve has fallen 38% since the start of 2026, CryptoQuant said, while annual dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled from about $300 million to $1.2 billion in under six months as the company issued more STRC to fund BTC accumulation. Dividend coverage, a measure of how long the reserve could fund payouts, has collapsed from more than seven years to roughly 14 months. The reserve stood at about $1.1 billion in mid-June, partially depleted by $1.5 billion spent in May to buy back convertible notes, and has since recovered to roughly $1.4 billion after Strategy sold $335.5 million in MSTR shares, adding about $300 million to the dollar reserve on Monday. Bitcoin was trading around $62,662.58 at the time of the report.

CryptoQuant said STRC would need a reserve of about $2.8 billion, equivalent to 24 months of coverage, to recover toward par, a level the firm described as a "necessary condition" for the preferred to climb back to $100. The company is not "obligated" to sell bitcoin to defend STRC's price, the report added, noting that Strategy could also raise the current 11.5% dividend yield or issue additional MSTR stock to "signal its ability to continue paying dividends." Strategy said Monday on X that it plans to "continue replenishing" its USD reserve to "support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities."

CryptoQuant also flagged the scale of Strategy's unrealized losses, stating that "the company sits on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025, and 2026 underwater," and warned that "any forced BTC sale at current prices would crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value." The report framed Strategy's bitcoin holdings as a "limited emergency cushion" rather than a free backstop, given the scale of the paper loss. Strategy did not immediately respond to requests for comment on its plans to rebuild the cash reserve or whether that could help STRC's price recover.