BitMEX's Hayes bets long, hedges louder: $40K $BTC floor in six months 🎢

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said Bitcoin ($BTC) could bottom near $40,000 within the next six months, even as his core book remains heavily long and hedged with put spreads. Bitcoin traded around $62,278 on Tuesday, down roughly 3% over 24 hours, leaving a move to Hayes's target equal to about a 35% drawdown from current levels. Hayes outlined the call during a June 12 interview with content creator EllioTrades, reiterating that he is comfortable staying long regardless of near-term price action. "I'm going to stick with it," Hayes said when asked if his $200,000–$250,000 year-end target still holds. "If I'm wrong it doesn't matter… I'm long, I'm still happy either way."

MicroStrategy's accumulation gave $BTC a lift earlier in the week, helping it reclaim the $65,000 level. The company added 520 BTC and raised cash reserves by $300 million to $1.4 billion, extending dividend coverage to nearly 10 months. Analysts at QCP noted the buying likely flowed through a dilutive at-the-market stock program, while the firm's STRC preferred shares recovered above $90. Wintermute said in a market update that Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin at a slower pace as funding costs rise, and that the two largest structural buyers, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Strategy, now provide less marginal demand than before. The firm added that leverage across the crypto market has largely been cleared.

The dominant near-term drag remains the Federal Reserve, which held the benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, stripped its easing bias, and tilted the dot plot toward a hike, lifting the median 2026 rate path. QCP analysts wrote that $BTC will likely require a confluence of positive catalysts to break decisively out of its current range. With Hayes hedged for a deeper flush and the policy backdrop still hawkish, Bitcoin's multi-week holding pattern remains intact.