Zuck Bets the Farm on a Points-Only Oracle, Because Cash Was So 2024 🎯

Meta is building a prediction markets app called "Arena" that will let users forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs using a video game-like points system rather than real-money wagers, according to two employees familiar with the matter cited by the New York Times. The project, described internally as experimental and a top priority, is being championed by CEO Mark Zuckerberg and would operate independently of Meta's Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram properties. The employees said Meta has not ruled out eventually allowing cash wagers on the platform and plans to leverage its social media audiences to drive adoption.

The Arena initiative revives Meta's earlier Forecast app, which launched in 2020 during the early Covid-19 pandemic to crowdsource predictions on current events and was shut down in 2022. The new push comes as prediction markets have surged in popularity, fueled by Polymarket's breakout performance during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when traders placed billions of dollars in volume on electoral outcomes on the crypto-based platform. Rival Kalshi, crypto exchange operators Coinbase ($COIN) and Kraken, retail brokerage Robinhood ($HOOD), Intercontinental Exchange, and gambling company DraftKings have all moved into event-based contracts.

The rapid expansion has drawn increasing legal and regulatory scrutiny over whether event contracts tied to elections, geopolitics and other outcomes constitute gambling or qualify as legitimate financial instruments. Meta has prior experience with regulatory blowback in crypto-adjacent sectors: the company faced intense pushback in 2019 after unveiling the Libra stablecoin and Calibra digital wallet, a project later rebranded as Diem before its assets were sold to the collapsed Silvergate Bank. Meta has also reportedly invested $80 billion in Zuckerberg's metaverse vision, wound down new virtual reality development for Horizon Worlds earlier this year, and discontinued Instagram's short-lived NFT support roughly a year after announcing it.

In April, Meta began allowing content creators to receive earnings in USDC stablecoin directly to their crypto wallets across several networks. The company has not announced a launch date for Arena, and it remains to be decided whether the points-based system will be expanded to allow users to wager money on the platform.