Zuck Rolls the Dice: Meta's 'Arena' App Tips Into Polymarket's Prediction Pond 🎯

Meta is developing an experimental prediction market-style app called Arena that would let users forecast outcomes in politics, sports, entertainment and world affairs, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke with the New York Times. The product is being treated as a top priority inside the company, with CEO Mark Zuckerberg personally forming the team behind it. The app will be built independent of Meta's existing platforms, including Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, though the company plans to leverage its social networking audiences to drive users to the new product.

Unlike established prediction market operators such as Polymarket and Kalshi, Arena is expected to rely on a video game-like points system rather than cash wagers, the people said. Meta has not ruled out eventually allowing real-money betting, leaving that possibility open as the product matures. The company is also exploring stablecoin integration as part of a broader push into crypto payments.

The project marks a revival of Meta's earlier Forecast initiative, which launched in 2020 during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic and was taken down in 2022. Arena enters a sector that has surged in popularity following Polymarket's breakout success during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when traders turned to the crypto-based platform to place bets on electoral outcomes and drive billions of dollars in trading volume.

Nearly every major trading platform has since moved to offer prediction market-style products or event contracts. Crypto-native firms including Coinbase and Kraken have explored opportunities in the space, while retail brokerage Robinhood has introduced event-based contracts tied to political and economic outcomes. The rapid growth of those markets has also drawn increasing legal and regulatory scrutiny, with critics arguing that contracts tied to elections, geopolitics and other real-world events raise questions about whether they constitute gambling or qualify as legitimate financial instruments.