BofA Sees The Fed Hiking Three Times In 2026 — Crypto's "Boring Phase" Just Got A Plot Twist 📉

Bank of America Global Research has sharply upgraded its U.S. monetary policy outlook, now forecasting three Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in 2026 totaling 75 basis points. In a Monday note, the bank called for 25 basis point increases at each of the FOMC's September, October and December sessions, which would lift the benchmark rate into the 4.25%-4.50% range. The projection marks a decisive hawkish pivot from earlier BofA forecasts that anticipated no rate changes during the year and places the bank alongside Wall Street's most aggressive rate forecasters.

Deutsche Bank has separately revised its own expectations, now calling for two 25 basis point hikes in 2026, one in September and a second in December. The shift at both institutions contrasts with the consensus of major broker-dealers, who on average continue to project steady borrowing costs through year-end. The repricing follows the Federal Reserve's most recent FOMC meeting, at which policymakers held the benchmark rate unchanged while nearly half of the participants indicated they would likely raise rates before December to address rising inflation and broader U.S. economic conditions.

Higher rates typically weigh on risk assets, and cryptocurrencies have shown heightened sensitivity to shifts in rate expectations. The Bank of America revision lands as digital asset markets, including $BTC and $ETH, trade in a tight consolidation range, with traders weighing the prospect of tighter financial conditions against ongoing institutional adoption flows. No Federal Reserve official has publicly confirmed the timing or magnitude of any 2026 move, and markets continue to price each FOMC meeting individually.

The combination of BofA's three-hike call and Deutsche Bank's two-hike scenario narrows the range of Wall Street expectations and increases the probability that at least one additional rate increase is delivered before year-end. For crypto markets, the implication is a continued macro headwind: tightening financial conditions historically correlate with reduced appetite for speculative positioning in digital assets, particularly during periods of range-bound price action.

Bank of America Global Research and Deutsche Bank each published updated forecasts on Monday, and the Federal Reserve's next FOMC decision is scheduled for September. Any further updates to dot-plot projections or official guidance will be closely tracked by both rate strategists and crypto market participants.