Bitcoin Rides the Strait to $65K — Then Wobbles When Tehran Hangs the "Closed" Sign Back Up 🚢

Bitcoin climbed to roughly $65,844 on Monday, up 2.1% over 24 hours and its highest level in nearly two weeks, after the United States and Iran reached a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the agreement due to be signed on Friday, June 19, in Switzerland. The token had touched a low near $63,722 in the early hours of Asian trading before the news broke, leaving it about 9% above the sub-$60,000 mark it hit the prior week, its weakest level since October 2024, per CoinDesk data. Ether rose 2.5% to $1,721, solana gained 3.6% to $71, XRP added 3.2% to $1.19, BNB and dogecoin each added more than 1%, and Hyperliquid's HYPE led the majors with a 7.5% jump to nearly $65. Brent crude slumped more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as the geopolitical premium built up since late February unwound, the Nikkei 225 headed for a record close with Asian stocks up more than 3%, and S&P 500 futures rose 1.2% as the dollar slipped against major peers. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal first, followed by President Donald Trump and Iranian state media; Trump said on Truth Social that "ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz" along the Southern "Highway," which he called "totally safe, secure, and pristine."

The relief rally was broad but analysts flagged the same demand problem underneath it. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, told Decrypt that the move from the low $60,000s to around $65,800 had already recovered "most of the geopolitical risk premium built up in recent weeks" and that the U.S.-Iran deal does not fix Bitcoin's "genuinely soft institutional demand." Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, said Bitcoin's recent levels "looked significantly oversold from a sentiment perspective" with most negative news already priced in. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $2.1 billion in June so far, pacing May's $2.4 billion outflows, according to SoSoValue data, with a $214 million outflow on Wednesday keeping the trend intact after a June 4 inflow blip broke a 13-day losing streak that had drained roughly $4.4 billion; over $4.8 billion of U.S. capital has exited Bitcoin ETF products since May. Strategy's disclosure earlier this month that it sold 32 bitcoin to fund preferred share dividends added to the pressure on a bid long assumed to rest on the idea that the firm would never sell, and the Bitcoin network recorded its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment on record. On prediction markets, Myriad users put a 67% chance on Bitcoin's next major move knocking it down to $55,000, while Kalshi users expect Bitcoin to close out the year at $69,000, down 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025.

By the following weekend the picture had shifted. Bitcoin steadied near $64,200, up 0.9% over 24 hours but roughly flat on the week after dropping below $63,000 on Friday, with ether up 3.3% on the week to $1,734, solana at $73, tron 1.2% higher, Hyperliquid's HYPE up 14.8% over seven days despite a 2% pullback on the day, and dogecoin the weakest major, down 4.9% on the week, per CoinDesk data. The renewed tension came from Iran, which issued an order to close the Strait of Hormuz even as it sent negotiators to Switzerland, where U.S. officials including Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff opened permanent ceasefire talks under a memorandum of understanding Trump signed the prior week, setting a 60-day window extendable by mutual agreement. Qatari and Pakistani mediators said in a joint statement that "encouraging progress has been made including the creation of a mechanism for further technical talks" and a communication line to keep commercial shipping moving safely through the strait, and Brent crude fell 1.7% to about $79 a barrel. Asian equities rose on a technology rally tied to continued optimism over artificial intelligence, with an MSCI gauge of Asian stocks up 0.6%, while U.S. futures were softer and S&P 500 contracts slipped 0.5%.

Trump, speaking at a G7 conference in France hours after announcing the Sunday agreement, framed the equity rally as a live scorecard on his Middle East strategy. "The stock market is quite brilliant. Every time we said something amazing like we are going to settle, it would go up. Every time we said something negative … it would go down very big," he said, noting the S&P 500 had closed at a record 7,554.29 on June 15, up 1.65%, the Dow added 468.77 points for a record finish near 51,671, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.07%. He also pointed to oil, which has fallen roughly 20% from its 2026 peak, and said he had expected the stock market to drop 25% to 30% during the strikes on Iran, a move that briefly rattled stocks and oil. On-chain, Nick Ruck, a director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that despite Bitcoin reclaiming $67,000 its "momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics indicating that the recovery lacks conviction and could quickly fade," and Swissblock said its price-momentum and on-balance-volume indicators remain at bear market lows at -1 and -1.7 million respectively. Total crypto market cap rose roughly $39 billion, up 1.37%, to near $2.19 trillion, average daily trading volume stayed below normal at $52 billion to $55 billion, open interest stood at roughly $108 billion, funding rates stayed near neutral to slightly positive, the long/short ratio sat at 50.35% longs and 49.65% shorts, and liquidations eased to roughly $146 million. Strategy's STRC preferred stock dipped to a record low of $82.53, later recovering 2.6% to $87.45 per Yahoo Finance, and CME Group filed a lawsuit against the CFTC asking a court to vacate the agency's approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures; with bitcoin starting the new week at $63,996, down 0.4% over 24 hours and 2.2% on the week, the range that has held through June looks set to stay in place until the Iran picture and the Fed path clear up.