Bitcoin Catches a Ceasefire Bounce, Keeps One Eye on the Hormuz Exit Sign 🚦

Bitcoin climbed back toward $64,200 over the weekend, steadying after a week defined by a US-Iran deal, a brief rally to roughly $66,800, and a Friday sell-off that briefly pushed the token below $63,000. The token was up 0.9% over 24 hours but essentially flat on the week, according to CoinDesk data. The price action tracked a memorandum of understanding signed last week by President Donald Trump, which set a 60-day window for permanent ceasefire talks, extendable by mutual agreement. Vice President JD Vance, along with negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, were due in Switzerland over the weekend for the first round of follow-up discussions, with Bloomberg reporting Vance's travel plans and Axios saying Witkoff had already arrived in the country.

The broader crypto market firmed with it. Ether rose 0.5% on the day and 3.3% on the week to $1,734, solana gained 1.5% to $73, and tron added 1.2%. Hyperliquid's HYPE slipped 2% over 24 hours but stayed the week's standout at up 14.8%, while dogecoin lagged major peers, down 4.9% over seven days. Total crypto market capitalization added roughly $39 billion, rising 1.37% to about $2.19 trillion, though average daily trading volume of $52 billion to $55 billion sat below normal levels. Open Interest climbed to roughly $108 billion and funding rates stayed near neutral to slightly positive, with the Long/Short Ratio balanced at 50.35% longs to 49.65% shorts, and liquidations eased to about $146 million. Spot Taker CVD remained slightly negative to neutral on most exchanges, and the Coinbase Premium Index stayed below zero, signaling subdued US demand.

The relief followed an earlier rally that began on June 15, when Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif first announced the US-Iran deal, followed by Trump and Iranian state media. Bitcoin jumped as much as 3.5% to $66,570.40 intraday on Monday, putting it about 9% above the sub-$60,000 low touched the previous week, the token's weakest level since October 2024. Ether added 2.5% to $1,721, solana gained 3.6% to $71, and XRP rose 3.2% to $1.19 at the peak, while BNB and dogecoin each added more than 1%. Brent crude fell more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as traders unwound the geopolitical premium, the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,554.29 up 1.65%, the Dow added 468.77 points to close near 51,671, the Nasdaq jumped 3.07%, and the Nikkei 225 headed for a record close with S&P 500 futures up 1.2%. Bitcoin slipped back later in the week, last trading near $64,200 after dropping more than 2% in a day as the Federal Reserve cooled rate-cut bets. Trump said at a G7 conference in France that "The stock market is quite brilliant. Every time we said something amazing like we are going to settle, it would go up," and added that oil had fallen roughly 20% from its 2026 peak. The S&P 500 has now risen thousands of points since the deal was signed, Trump said, arguing "Trillions of dollars will be made by the world."

The deal's structure sets up 60 days of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and potential sanctions relief, with the Strait of Hormuz set to reopen upon signing, as confirmed by Trump in a Truth Social post stating "ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz." The mechanism also created a High-Level Committee to monitor the mediation process, according to a joint statement from Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with chief negotiators set to attend follow-up technical talks. The token's path between roughly $59,100 and $67,300 in recent sessions left it near the 50% retracement level at $66,800, and the FOMC's two-day meeting is set to conclude on June 17 under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with the FedWatch Tool pricing in a steady hold at 3.50%-3.75%. Swissblock data showed price momentum at -1 and on-balance volume at -1.7 million, its lowest point in years, and analyst Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said Bitcoin's "momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics indicating that the recovery lacks conviction and could quickly fade."

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1 billion in June so far, on pace with May's $2.4 billion in outflows, with Wednesday's $214 million outflow keeping the trend intact after a June 4 inflow blip briefly broke a 13-day losing streak that had drained roughly $4.4 billion, according to SoSoValue. Over $4.8 billion of US capital has exited Bitcoin ETF products since May, with total net assets declining since May 10. Strategy disclosed earlier this month that it sold 32 bitcoin to fund preferred share dividends. Analysts at XYO told Decrypt that the relief rally "has already partially arrived" and that a peace deal alone does not restore "genuinely soft institutional demand," while TYMIO founder Georgii Verbitskii said the market has spent months digesting the tensions and most negative news appears priced in. Prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, put a 67% chance on Bitcoin's next major move knocking it down to $55,000, and Kalshi users expected Bitcoin to close 2026 at $69,000, down 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. Bitcoin recorded its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment over the weekend, and the network's hash rate has fallen 28% since October, with miner pressure intensifying after BTC dropped to a low of $59,100. Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz again, even as Tehran sends negotiators to Switzerland, left the same uncertainty the signed deal was meant to remove, keeping traders focused on whether durable progress in the talks can convert derivatives positioning into sustained spot demand.