Bitcoin's Network Mood Ring Flirts With Bullish While $BTC Sits Awkwardly On Its Support Couch

Bitcoin's network activity index has crossed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024, a threshold CryptoQuant classifies as a bull phase and one that preceded significant price advances in 2024 and 2025. Daily Bitcoin transactions have exceeded 800,000 in 2026, more than doubling from 2025 lows, and the network activity index has jumped from roughly 3,320 to approximately 3,600. BTC price sat at $62,500 at time of writing, down 2.5% over 24 hours, holding just above the 200-week SMA near $62,000, a level that has historically functioned as long-cycle support. Partial de-escalation from the Iran peace deal has removed some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been suppressing risk appetite across crypto markets.

CryptoQuant's network activity index measures a composite of transaction count, active addresses, and block utilization. Breaking above its 365-day average has historically marked the transition into sustained bull-phase behavior, a pattern observed in late 2024 and again briefly in April 2025, both of which preceded upward price moves. The index is now in that band again for the first time in over a year, with average transactions per block running near record levels for several consecutive weeks, which CryptoQuant describes as structural rather than transient.

The accumulation data reinforces the signal. Long-term holders now hold more than 4.37 million BTC, up from roughly 2 million BTC in early 2024, a lock-up of supply that historically tightens available float ahead of price recoveries. The combination of a bull-phase network reading and a macro tailwind has renewed focus on whether the recent dip marks a durable floor for $BTC, though the data itself does not confirm direction and only indicates that on-chain throughput has returned to a historically constructive range.