Hormuz Who? Bitcoin Pops Two-Week High as Oil Takes a $83 Bath 🛁

Bitcoin climbed about 2% to roughly $65,844 on Monday, its highest level in nearly two weeks, after the United States and Iran reached a deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing the energy-supply fears that had dragged the token below $60,000 last week. BTC traded as low as $63,722 in early Asian hours before the deal news broke, per CoinDesk data, and remains about 9% above its sub-$60,000 print from the prior week, its weakest level since October 2024. The rally was broad: ether ($ETH) added 2.5% to $1,721, solana ($SOL) gained 3.6% to $71, XRP rose 3.2% to $1.19, BNB and dogecoin each advanced more than 1%, and Hyperliquid's HYPE led major tokens with a 7.5% jump to nearly $65. Brent crude fell more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as traders unwound the geopolitical premium that had supported oil since late February, the dollar weakened against major peers, Japan's Nikkei 225 headed for a record close, and S&P 500 futures rose 1.2%.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the agreement first, followed by President Donald Trump on Truth Social and Iranian state media. Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on Friday upon signing, posting that "ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz" along a "totally safe, secure, and pristine" southern route. The Associated Press reported the deal includes a US lifting of its blockade of the Strait and of Iran's ports, after which the two countries will begin 60 days of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and potential sanctions relief. Vice President JD Vance said he plans to travel to Switzerland in the coming days to meet with US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who were already "on the ground" in the country. The signing is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland. Speaking at a G7 conference in France hours after the announcement, Trump said he backed the deal in part because of the market reaction: "The stock market is quite brilliant. Every time we said something amazing like we are going to settle, it would go up. Every time we said something negative … it would go down very big." The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,554.29 on June 15, up 1.65%, the Dow added 468.77 points for a record finish near 51,671, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.07%.

Analysts cautioned that the relief rally has not resolved Bitcoin's underlying demand problems. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, said the deal does not fix "genuinely soft institutional demand," adding that "a peace deal alone does not bring that capital back." Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1 billion in June so far, pacing May's $2.4 billion outflows, and over $4.8 billion of US capital has exited Bitcoin ETF products since May 10, according to SoSoValue data; Wednesday's $214 million outflow followed a June 4 inflow that briefly broke a 13-day losing streak that had drained roughly $4.4 billion. Strategy's disclosure earlier this month that it sold 32 bitcoin to fund preferred share dividends added to the pressure. Nick Ruck, a director at LVRG Research, said Bitcoin's "momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics indicating that the recovery lacks conviction and could quickly fade." Swissblock reported that price momentum sits at -1 and on-balance volume at -1.7 million, its lowest point in years, and warned that "until then, the risk of another retest of the lows remains on the table." On Myriad, prediction market users put a 67% chance on Bitcoin's next major move knocking it down to $55,000, while Kalshi users expect Bitcoin to close the year at $69,000, down 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025.

Bitcoin hashrate has fallen 28% since last October, miner inflows to exchanges spiked in February and again earlier this month, and the production cost stands near $76,000 against market prices well below it, with one analyst flagging the $67,300 level as a possible high-water mark for the next move. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting concludes June 17, with new Chair Kevin Warsh set to deliver the rate decision; the CME FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing the benchmark steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting, with markets pricing in a 1.00% rate hike, adds another macro hinge: BOJ tightening cycles have historically coincided with sharp Bitcoin corrections, as a weaker yen and ultra-loose liquidity have fueled carry trades into US assets. Bitcoin traded near $64,200 in later coverage after slipping more than 2% in a day as the Federal Reserve cooled rate-cut bets, having earlier popped above $67,000 on the ceasefire headlines before fading.