Steil's New Bill Says Lawmakers Can't Bet on Policy — White House Gets a Free Pass 🎲

Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), chair of the House subcommittee on digital assets, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday, a bill that would bar members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets tied to government policy, government actions and "political outcomes," including election results. The legislation targets event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. "The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen," Steil said. "This legislation is critical to restoring the public's trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome."

Under the measure, violators would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager's value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet. Lawmakers could not use official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances or campaign donations to cover the fines, and those who leave office without paying could be referred to the Justice Department for civil enforcement. The bill builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which the House Administration Committee advanced in January. If enacted, the law would take effect 180 days after signing.

The proposal does not address White House officials, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic adviser to Kalshi and an adviser to Polymarket, which sponsored the UFC Freedom 250 event at the White House on Sunday.

Federal scrutiny of prediction markets has intensified in recent months. Under Trump, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair Michael Selig has asserted the agency's "exclusive jurisdiction" over event contracts, filing multiple lawsuits against state-level restrictions and arguing under the Commodity Exchange Act that such products can be regulated as "swaps" rather than bets; some legal observers expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court. The Senate passed a resolution in April barring its own members and staff from using prediction markets, and the House Oversight Committee opened investigations in May into Kalshi and Polymarket, citing concerns about a pattern of insider trading on the platforms.

Attention to the issue surged after the April arrest of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who pleaded not guilty in April to five federal crimes including commodities fraud and is set to face trial on Dec. 7 in Manhattan, per courtroom reporting from Inner City Press. Prosecutors allege Van Dyke used classified military intelligence to place winning wagers on Polymarket tied to January's removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, generating more than $400,000. Steil told reporters earlier this month he intends to add similar restrictions to a separate, broader bill banning congressional stock trading, which has stalled since clearing committee in February but could receive a House vote this summer.