Steil's Bets-Ban Bill Stops Short of the West Wing 🎲

Wisconsin Representative Bryan Steil introduced legislation Thursday aimed at prohibiting certain public officials from "wagering on public policy issues and political outcomes" on prediction markets, though the bill notably does not address White House officials. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act would bar "members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children" from using policy-aligned event contracts on platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket. Violators could face a $2,000 fee or 10% of the value of the prohibited bets, according to a notice from the Committee on House Administration. The bill would not restrict lawmakers from making sporting event wagers or from using prediction markets in general, but would prohibit bets tied to specific government policies, government actions and "political outcomes," including election results. If passed by Congress and signed into law by the president, the statute would take effect 180 days after enactment.

Steil, who chairs the House subcommittee on digital assets, framed the proposal as a response to concerns that elected officials could exploit insider information when trading event contracts. The bill follows a high-profile case in which a soldier allegedly made more than $400,000 betting on the removal of Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, who was ousted by US forces in January. Cointelegraph reached out to Steil's office for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

The legislation stops short of covering White House figures, including President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic adviser to Kalshi and an adviser to Polymarket, which was a sponsor of the UFC Freedom 250 event held at the White House on Sunday.

Separately, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under Chair Michael Selig has asserted that the federal agency holds "exclusive jurisdiction" over prediction markets. The CFTC has filed multiple lawsuits against state-level authorities that have restricted or banned the platforms, arguing that under the Commodity Exchange Act, event contracts can be regulated as "swaps" rather than bets, a legal fight that some experts say could reach the Supreme Court.