Bitcoin just high-fived its 200-week average twice, and history brought snacks 🍿

Bitcoin traded just above its 200-week simple moving average on June 18, after dipping below that long-term trend line twice in the past two weeks, a level that crypto exchange Kraken says has historically marked unusually strong entry points for buyers. As of writing, BTC was changing hands at $63,900, hovering above the 200-week SMA of $62,358.

Speaking to CoinDesk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo noted that closes below the 200-week average have been rare events, occurring on only about 10% of trading days since mid-2017. Twice in the last two weeks, BTC slipped briefly under the indicator before climbing back above it by the close of each week, putting the long-term trend line back in focus for market participants.

"Historically, buyers at this level have gone on to see median returns north of 113% over the following year and 313% over two years," Perfumo said in an email. The figures refer to the median outcome, meaning the return that sits in the middle of all instances in which BTC was bought below the 200-week SMA, rather than a simple average, which can be distorted by outliers.

Perfumo added that the experience of holding through those periods has been comparatively mild. "For those who accumulated below the 200-week MA, the median time to break even on their investment has been just two days, while the median maximum drawdown over the subsequent year has been only 9%," he said. He also cautioned that "past performance is no guarantee of future results," while noting that "the historical record makes a clear case: at these levels, bitcoin has tended to offer immense value."

Bitcoin was last priced at $62,500.73, down 5.33% on the day, according to market data cited in the report.