XRP Bulls vs. Binance Bears: The Tug-of-War Nobody Asked For 🥊

XRP climbed back toward $1.20 in a recovery driven primarily by spot demand rather than derivatives activity. Aggregate Estimated Spot CVD across centralized exchanges rose to $267.4 million, the highest level since mid-May, according to on-chain market data. That figure marks a sharp reversal from mid-April, when the metric sat near -$177 million, indicating that buyers have re-entered the market in force.

Binance perpetual traders have moved in the opposite direction. Binance Perpetual CVD fell to a record -$792.5 million, compared with roughly -$218 million in mid-May, suggesting that leveraged short positions continue to build even as spot buyers absorb selling pressure. The divergence between spot accumulation and perpetual selling has kept the recent price action structurally thin on the derivatives side.

Leverage on Binance has also expanded. XRP's estimated leverage ratio on the exchange reached 0.187, near the highest level recorded during the current cycle, indicating that traders are taking on greater leveraged exposure while the price holds above $1.20. At the same time, Binance's exchange supply ratio for XRP fell to approximately 0.0268, leaving a relatively thin reserve of tokens available for sale on the platform.

The combination of elevated leverage and persistent perpetual short positioning leaves the market sensitive to shifts in spot demand. If spot buyers continue to absorb selling from perpetual shorts, the imbalance could amplify upside movement. Conversely, any softening in spot demand against the existing short book could trigger rapid liquidations given the elevated leverage ratios. For now, the price structure points to elevated volatility risk rather than directional certainty.