Winter Is Cancelled: $BTC Thaws Past $66K as the 4-Year Cycle Files for Divorce 📉💍

Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick said on Friday that crypto has likely seen its low for the cycle, writing in a note that "winter is over" after Bitcoin's fall to nearly $59,000. That drop marked a 53% drawdown from the October peak of $126,000. Bitcoin has since climbed back, most recently changing hands above $66,000, up roughly 12% from its $59,100 trough and about 5% over the past week, according to CoinGecko. The total crypto market capitalization tracked by the aggregator slipped to $2.277 trillion from $2.29 trillion over the same period.

The rebound followed the signing of the "Islamabad declaration" between the United States and Iran, ending more than 100 days of conflict and triggering the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply moves. Around $246 million in crypto short positions were liquidated in the 24 hours after the announcement, with Bitcoin reaching $65,480 on June 14. Brent crude dropped 2% to about $88.50 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate fell 1.5% to $86, per Trading Economics. On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders grew confident that the U.S. oil benchmark will fall to $55 before $120. South Korea's Kospi, a gauge for AI stocks, rose 8.4%, while MSCI's Asia Pacific index gained 3.5%, its biggest rise in two months.

U.S. inflation data also shaped sentiment. Headline inflation rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% over the year, the fastest annual pace since April 2023, with energy climbing 3.9% on the month and accounting for more than 60% of the increase. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month, below the 0.3% forecast, and 2.9% over the year. Traders now await the Fed's June 17 meeting, where markets expect no change to rates. Kendrick also cited SpaceX's $75 billion IPO, the largest in U.S. history, as a catalyst; on Hyperliquid, pre-IPO perpetual contracts on SpaceX (SPCX) have amassed over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour volume, ranking it the eighth-largest asset on the platform.

Galaxy CEO Michael Novogratz pushed back on the idea that Bitcoin is broken, telling Anthony Scaramucci on All Things Markets that he never subscribed to the four-year cycle thesis, despite Binance's Richard Teng, CZ and others in China embracing it. Novogratz noted that Bitcoin trades roughly 4x above its 2022 lows near $15,000, sits above Michael Saylor's predicted $45,000 floor, and is held by investors who bought at $8,000 and refused to sell at $126,000. He added that Bitcoin volumes are down 40% and that other tokens are performing worse, warning that "the AI bubble was becoming a thing, and that's how some great undertakings end." Bitcoin spot ETFs have posted roughly $5 billion in net outflows since mid-May, according to CoinGlass, the sharpest stretch since inception.

A separate catalyst emerged from Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, which disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million between May 26 and May 31 to fund dividends on its STRC preferred shares. The sale was tiny compared with the company's roughly 845,000 BTC pile, about 4% of total supply, but it carried symbolic weight given Saylor's long-running "never sell bitcoin" stance. Strategy also sold about 800,000 shares for $128 million through its at-the-market program that week. According to AMBCrypto, the bounce from $60,780 on June 9 to $67,292 by June 15 was driven by returning buyers rather than a short squeeze, with eight of the previous 10 trading days showing taker values above 1.0. Glassnode reported that spot volume collapsed 40.4% over the past week, futures open interest fell 3% despite the bounce, active addresses dropped 6.3% and entity-adjusted transfer volume fell 38.8%, leaving the recovery structurally fragile.