Strait Vibes: $BTC Pops to $66K as Hormuz Reopens and Oil Throws a Tantrum

Bitcoin surged to its highest level in nearly two weeks on Monday after the United States and Iran reached an agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pulling the geopolitical premium out of crude and pumping it back into risk assets. The token traded around $65,860, up roughly 2% to 2.2% over 24 hours, per CoinGecko and CoinDesk data, after touching an intraday high above $66,500 on CoinGape reporting. The move puts $BTC about 9% above the sub-$60,000 low it hit last week, its weakest level since October 2024. The rally was broad: ether (ETH) rose 2.5% to $1,721, solana gained 3.6% to $71, and XRP added 3.2% to $1.19. Hyperliquid's HYPE was the standout, up 7.5% to nearly $65, while BNB and dogecoin both added more than 1%.

Brent crude slumped more than 4% toward $83 a barrel as traders unwound the geopolitical premium that had kept oil elevated since late February. Asian stocks jumped more than 3%, with Japan's Nikkei 225 heading for a record close, and S&P 500 futures rose 1.2%. The U.S. dollar index fell against major peers. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal first, followed by President Donald Trump and Iranian state media. Trump said on Truth Social that "ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz," describing a southern route as "totally safe, secure, and pristine." Trump separately announced that the Strait would reopen on Friday upon signing, with the deal expected to be inked in Switzerland on Friday, June 19. Neither side has released the full text, and the two countries will begin 60 days of negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and potential sanctions relief, per the Associated Press.

The relief rally has, however, failed to convince skeptics that $BTC's structural demand picture has changed. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, told Decrypt that the market has "already partially arrived" in pricing in the deal and that the U.S.-Iran agreement does not fix $BTC's "genuinely soft institutional demand" problem, adding, "A peace deal alone does not bring that capital back." Spot bitcoin ETFs have shed $2.1 billion in June so far, pacing May's $2.4 billion outflows, according to SoSoValue data. Wednesday's $214 million outflow followed a 13-day losing streak that drained roughly $4.4 billion from these products, and over $4.8 billion of U.S. capital has exited $BTC ETF products since May 10.

On-chain and momentum signals also remain weak despite the price recovery. Swissblock said on Monday that price momentum and on-balance volume (OBV) remain in a "weak momentum and participation regime," with price momentum at -1 and OBV at its lowest point in years at -1.7 million. Nick Ruck, a director at LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that despite $BTC recently reclaiming $67,000, its "momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics indicating that the recovery lacks conviction and could quickly fade." He added that if the deal breaks down, $BTC "may initially find bids as a hedge asset before broader risk-off flows push it toward key support zones." Georgii Verbitskii, derivatives trader and founder of TYMIO, told Decrypt that $BTC's recent levels looked "significantly oversold from a sentiment perspective." Strategy disclosed earlier this month that it sold 32 bitcoin to fund preferred share dividends, according to Decrypt's reporting. On prediction markets, Myriad users put a 67% chance on $BTC's next major move knocking it down to $55,000, while Kalshi users expect $BTC to close out the year at $69,000, down 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025.

The deal landed ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting where markets are pricing in a 1.00% rate hike, followed by next week's FOMC decision, with the network recording its 11th-largest downward difficulty adjustment as on-chain realized losses remain limited and most holders continue to sit on paper losses rather than selling.